Clients keep asking me whether Bitcoin is back.
I don’t know. We don’t run a house view on where Bitcoin goes next.
What I can do is check whether this kind of move has historically meant anything. So I ran a simple test: every time Bitcoin gained more than 15% in three days since 2020, what happened next?
Here is what I found.
1. It Happened 21 Times Since 2020 (BTC >15% In 3 Days)
2. It Was Highly Positive Signal
| Horizon | Average | Median | Positive |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days | +4.46% | +4.03% | 76.2% |
| 30 days | +20.17% | +18.79% | 90.5% |
| 3 months (90D) | +46.66% | +26.44% | 90.5% |
3. Forward Path After The Signal Is Very Stable
The strongest continuation is in first 40 days.
4. It’s Also Regime Dependent And Skewed By 2020/2021
5. Even Since 2022 The Pattern Is Still Pretty Strong…
6. Just The Impact To PnL Is Lower
7. Limited Data Set
21 samples only, interesting statistics anyway.
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Historical analysis only, based on 21 qualifying observations since 2020. Not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Past performance does not guarantee future results.