# Is Bitcoin Back? Source: https://robuxio.com/research/bitcoin-rallied-15-percent-in-three-days Markdown: https://robuxio.com/research/bitcoin-rallied-15-percent-in-three-days.md Bitcoin gained more than 15% in three days 21 times since 2020. Here is what happened over the next 7, 30 and 90 days, including the study's sample limits. --- [![Robuxio - Algorithmic Crypto Trading Solutions](https://robuxio.com/images/logos/logo.svg)](https://robuxio.com/) [Home](https://robuxio.com/)[Crypto](https://robuxio.com/crypto)[Equities](https://robuxio.com/equities)[Whitelabel](https://robuxio.com/whitelabel)[Resources](https://robuxio.com/resources) [Book a Call](https://robuxio.com/call) [← Field Notes](https://robuxio.com/research) # Is Bitcoin Back? Field Note • Pavel Kycek • August 21, 2026 Clients keep asking me whether Bitcoin is back. I don’t know. We don’t run a house view on where Bitcoin goes next. What I can do is check whether this kind of move has historically meant anything. So I ran a simple test: every time Bitcoin gained more than 15% in three days since 2020, what happened next? Here is what I found. ## 1. It Happened 21 Times Since 2020 (BTC >15% In 3 Days) ![BTC price since 2020 on a log scale with the 21 qualifying three-day gains of 15 percent or more marked](https://robuxio.com/_next/image?url=%2Fimages%2Fblog%2Fresearch%2Fbitcoin-rallied-15-percent-in-three-days%2F01-occurrences.jpg&w=1920&q=75) ## 2. It Was Highly Positive Signal Horizon Average Median Positive 7 days +4.46% +4.03% 76.2% 30 days +20.17% +18.79% 90.5% 3 months (90D) +46.66% +26.44% 90.5% ![Bar chart comparing mean and median forward returns at 7, 30 and 90 days after the signal](https://robuxio.com/_next/image?url=%2Fimages%2Fblog%2Fresearch%2Fbitcoin-rallied-15-percent-in-three-days%2F02-average-vs-median.jpg&w=1920&q=75) ## 3. Forward Path After The Signal Is Very Stable The strongest continuation is in first 40 days. ![Mean and median forward return path from the signal close through day 90, with the 25 to 75 percent range shaded](https://robuxio.com/_next/image?url=%2Fimages%2Fblog%2Fresearch%2Fbitcoin-rallied-15-percent-in-three-days%2F03-forward-path.jpg&w=1920&q=75) ## 4. It’s Also Regime Dependent And Skewed By 2020/2021 ![Mean forward return at 7, 30 and 90 days broken out by year from 2020 to 2024, showing the 2020 and 2021 skew](https://robuxio.com/_next/image?url=%2Fimages%2Fblog%2Fresearch%2Fbitcoin-rallied-15-percent-in-three-days%2F04-regime-dependent.jpg&w=1920&q=75) ## 5. Even Since 2022 The Pattern Is Still Pretty Strong… ![Mean, median and share of positive outcomes at 7, 30 and 90 days for signals from 2022 onward](https://robuxio.com/_next/image?url=%2Fimages%2Fblog%2Fresearch%2Fbitcoin-rallied-15-percent-in-three-days%2F05-since-2022.jpg&w=1920&q=75) ## 6. Just The Impact To PnL Is Lower ![Forward return at 7, 30 and 90 days for each individual qualifying BTC event since 2022](https://robuxio.com/_next/image?url=%2Fimages%2Fblog%2Fresearch%2Fbitcoin-rallied-15-percent-in-three-days%2F06-events-since-2022.jpg&w=1920&q=75) ## 7. Limited Data Set 21 samples only, interesting statistics anyway. ## A Systematic Approach To Crypto You do not need one forecast for Bitcoin to define your exposure. Our crypto portfolios combine 20+ systematic strategies within a defined volatility mandate across bull, sideways and bear regimes. Historical analysis only, based on 21 qualifying observations since 2020. Not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Past performance does not guarantee future results. [All articles](https://robuxio.com/research) Disclaimer: All information provided by Robuxio.com is intended solely for the purpose of studying topics related to crypto trading and is in no way intended as a specific investment or trading recommendation. We are not a registered broker or investment advisor. Trading and investing in financial instruments (and cryptocurrencies in particular) is high risk. The decision to trade cryptocurrencies is the responsibility of each individual and only they are fully responsible for their decisions. Share this article: [![Robuxio — institutional systematic trading](https://robuxio.com/images/logos/logo-footer.svg)](https://robuxio.com/) Institutional-grade algorithmic exposure across all asset classes and market regimes. 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