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Monthly Report: October 2026
GAV (Gross Asset Value) - USD denomination
All statistics are calculated using Binance Futures USDⓈ-M, Fee Tier 0, USDT collateral.
Results may vary depending on the exchange, fee tier, or collateral type used.
1. Performance in October
Crypto HV returned -6.6%, Crypto LV returned -3.5%, Bitcoin returned -7.2%, and the Binance TOP50 returned -22.0%.
2. Performance YTD
YTD returns: Crypto HV +6.4% with a -12.9% max drawdown; Crypto LV +4.6% with a -7.0% max drawdown.
Average YTD correlation: Crypto HV vs BTC -0.0, Crypto HV vs TOP50 +0.1.
3. Volatility
Annualized volatility in October: Crypto HV 15.6%, Crypto LV 8.4%, BTC 27.6%, TOP50 57.6%.
Annualized volatility YTD: Crypto HV 21.9%, Crypto LV 11.8%, BTC 44.4%, TOP50 61.1%.
How We Calculate Rolling Volatility
For each day t, we take the previous 30 daily returns:
ri = (Balancei - Balancei-1) / Balancei-1
Daily Vol = StdDev(r1, r2, ..., r30)
Annualized Vol = Daily Vol × √365
Standard deviation is calculated using the population formula (dividing by N, not N-1). Annualization uses √365 to account for 365 calendar days of crypto trading.
4. Net Exposure
Daily net exposure for Crypto HV and Crypto LV during October 2026.
5. Funding
Net funding contribution to Crypto HV and Crypto LV during October.
6. QQQ Sleeve Contribution
Our benchmark accounts are EU-based and cannot trade Binance RWA perpetuals, so the figures above exclude the QQQ mean reversion sleeve. We measure it on an internal non-EU account that runs the same Crypto HV portfolio, plus QQQ.
Closed QQQ trades after commissions and funding, as % of account balance.
The sleeve had a losing month: -0.10% for Crypto HV and -0.06% for Crypto LV, mostly from one trade closed on 19 October.
7. The Numbers
Key metrics across all strategies and benchmarks - GAV (Gross Asset Value), USD denomination.
October 2026
| Strategy | Return | Max Drawdown | Volatility (ann.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto HV | -6.6% | -8.3% | 15.6% |
| Crypto LV | -3.5% | -4.5% | 8.4% |
| Bitcoin | -7.2% | -10.6% | 27.6% |
| Binance TOP50 | -22.0% | -25.0% | 57.6% |
YTD - 1 January 2026 to 31 October 2026
| Strategy | YTD Return | CAGR | Max Drawdown | Volatility (ann.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto HV | +6.4% | 7.7% | -12.9% | 21.9% |
| Crypto LV | +4.6% | 5.5% | -7.0% | 11.8% |
| Bitcoin | -11.5% | -13.7% | -39.5% | 44.4% |
| Binance TOP50 | -49.5% | -55.9% | -56.5% | 61.1% |
Since Inception - 1 July 2024 to 31 October 2026
| Strategy | Total Return | CAGR | Max Drawdown | Volatility (ann.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto HV | +74.1% | 26.8% | -35.2% | 34.6% |
| Crypto LV | +43.1% | 16.6% | -19.5% | 16.9% |
| Bitcoin | +23.5% | 9.5% | -53.0% | 45.0% |
| Binance TOP50 | -88.7% | -60.6% | -92.6% | 79.0% |
8. Commentary
October was a challenging month for both portfolios. Crypto HV returned -6.6% and Crypto LV -3.5%, making it the weakest month of the year for both. Bitcoin declined -7.2% and the Binance TOP50 fell -22.0%.
The key point, however, is that our results depend less on how much the market moves and more on how that movement develops.
October is a good example.
Bitcoin volatility was 27.6%, well below its 44.4% level for the year. Yet the market was difficult because the decline came in small steps, repeatedly interrupted by sharp one-to-three-day rebounds.
Compare that with June. Bitcoin fell -20.4% in a much more volatile selloff. The portfolios moved net short, stayed aligned with the trend, and both finished the month positive.
In October, the models responded in a similar way. The portfolios turned net short from 7 October and increased short exposure as prices weakened. The directional view was broadly correct. The difference was the path.
June trended down more cleanly. October repeatedly reversed after each move lower.
Those short-term rebounds created losses while positions were being built.
This kind of choppy, stop-start market is one of the more difficult environments for direction-oriented systematic models, especially when headline volatility appears relatively low.
When the market finally moved more decisively, the short exposure worked as intended. On 29 October, as news of a security breach at Binance spread, the TOP50 fell -8.6% in a single day and Crypto HV gained +1.8%.
For the month overall, max drawdown reached -8.3% for Crypto HV and -4.5% for Crypto LV, compared with -10.6% for Bitcoin and -25.0% for the TOP50.
Year-to-date, Crypto HV is +6.4% and Crypto LV +4.6%, while Bitcoin is -11.5% and the Binance TOP50 is -49.5%.
Since inception in July 2024, Crypto HV is +74.1% and Crypto LV +43.1%, compared with +23.5% for Bitcoin and -88.7% for the TOP50.
Across those 28 months, Crypto HV recorded 17 positive months and 11 negative months. The long-term outcome came from staying invested through both.
For clients trading on Binance, trading continued normally throughout the security incident and our systems placed all trades as expected. Binance temporarily paused withdrawals while reviewing the situation. As of 31 October, withdrawals were still paused. Binance has stated that user funds are safe and that losses will be covered through its SAFU emergency fund and company funds. We continue to monitor the situation closely and will contact clients directly if anything materially changes.
Funding was close to neutral, while the QQQ sleeve recorded a small loss during the month.
As always, the portfolio is not built around any single market view. It remains broadly diversified across strategies and exposures, with the objective of adapting across different market regimes.
Pavel Kycek
CEO & Co-Founder, Robuxio
Data & factsheet
Latest CSV export and factsheet PDF.
All performance data shown as GAV (Gross Asset Value). Past performance does not guarantee future results.